Overview

After oil and gas, automotive is the second and most important industry and was known the world’s 18 largest automotive manufacturer in 2016. More than 800,000 people are active in the industry. Iran ranks the world 13th in car sales and has a manufacturing capacity of 2 mn vehicles; Nearly 1,350,000 cars were produced in the year ended March 2017 and 1,600,000 vehicles are planned to be manufactured for the year ending March 2018. Due to the attractive market of neighboring countries, Iran is seeking to develop its market share along with world top brands. After the JCPOA, there are opportunities for Iranian and foreign companies to participate. So far, 6 manufacturing agreements have been signed which means higher quality and cheaper cars.
The automotive has a turnover of 26 bn USD, while16 bn of which for domestic, 6 bn USD or domestic and foreign auto parts and 4 bn USD are related to import. The GDP was about 3.6% in the year ended March 2017, while the current penetration rate is 0.2 (200 vehicles per 1,000 individuals).

Recent trends

– Ranking 13th
– In car sales in 2016
– Ranking 18th in car manufacturing in 2016
– Manufacturing more than 1,350,000 cars in the year ended March 2017
– 3.6% contribution of GDP in the year ended March 2017
– Six agreements between Iran and the world’s leading automotive companies

 Comparative statistics of Iran autos industry and world

Production

Iran achieved the world 18th rank by manufacturing about 1,350,000 vehicles, in the year ended March 2017 and experienced a growth of 38% over the last year. According to the International Organization of Automobile Manufacturers, about half of the vehicles were manufactured by Iran Khodro Company. According to The Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, total 1,600,000 vehicles are to be manufactured of this year.

Auto production (000 vehicles)

Autos production forecast (000 vehicles)

Composition of autos industry revenue                                                  Composition of autos industry profit

Source: Saipa

World Ranking

World’s top 10 autos manufacturers (mn vehicles)

From April to January 2017, more than 1 mn vehicles were manufactured by domestic
automakers which was 41% more than in the previous year. The 5 most famous cars are listed
below:
– Pride (217,994 vehicles)
– Peugeot 206 (128,642 vehicles)
– Peugeot 405 (123,486 vehicles)
– Peugeot Pars (99,778 vehicles)
– Tiba with (90,006 vehicles)

Total market share – value (bn IRR)

Export & Import

– More than 76,000 vehicles were imported in the year ended March 2017, representing an increase of 49%compared to the yearended March 2016.

– The total value of the imported vehicles over 1.99 bn USD.

– The government revenue of car import tariff was 2,500 bn USD, which is 75% of the predicted revenue.

– The UAE accounts for 65.4 % of imported vehicles, South Korea with 16%, Germany and Turkey with 3% and Spain and Kuwait, both with 2% are the next four largest import origins, all of which contribute to 92% of total import. Hyundai has 23% of import share by brand Hyundai Santa-Fe has 11% of import share by models
– According to Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration, 26,666 vehicles were imported at a value of 752,689,053 USD from April to July 2017.

Auto export (mn USD)

Auto import (mn USD)

The UAE, China and South Korea, have been the major import origins over the past few years. The major import through the UAE has been because of the lack of international manufacturer’s agency over the past years. Iran mainly export cars to underdeveloped countries including Iraq and Afghanistan and autos parts including brake drum and wheel hubs, radiators and clutch disc to developed countries such as Italy, Russia, France and Spain.

Auto market share composition
(volume) in the year ended March 2017

Competition

Iran major automakers, Iran Khodro and SAIPA, take 85.4% of the market share and form total share of 94.4% along with privately-owned automakers. According to statistics, automobile importers covered 5.7% of the market share in the year ended March 2017. Iran Khodro, with a share of 45.7%, is  still on the top and SAIPA has the second share of 39.7%.

Hyundai with more than 23% and Kia Motors hold 13% of all imported vehicles to Iran.

Eight models with largest share of total car import in the year ended March 2017

Sanctions & Post-Sanctions

Currently, the auto industry has gone through all the barriers, lack of domestic demand and liquidity bottlenecks in recent years. The auto manufacturing trend has been in the best situation in recent years. Growth in production and sales has led to operating profits increase and by reducing the costs, the margin profit ratio will be on the ascent path. Although, the industry inherited a huge debt from sanctions and has not yet managed to overcome it. At present, much of the operating profit is spent by financial cost and expensive financing results in the debt settlement process slow down. When JCPOA was launched, the auto industry came to life in the year ended March 2017. The recession in the automotive industry in the year ended March 2016 was due to the lack of demand and customers request to reduce prices and new products entry to the market. The recession continued in the year ended March 2016, when entering new international agreements with the world’s leading automotive brands and introducing new products, Iranian automakers set up contracts and tried to regain customer reliance and avoid the recession.

Auto parts

Since 13,000-16,000 components are used in the production of each vehicle, auto parts manufacturing can be considered as one of the most important competitive and job creator industries which not only meets domestic manufacturers needs and activates other affiliated industries with the automotive industry but also have high export benefits and revenues. Iran has a very high capacity of auto parts industry and after JCPOA, there were great opportunities for foreign companies to participate which highlights the role of parts industry in postJCPOA
vehicles. Foreign manufacturers signed contracts with domestic companies
and put their products internalization plans on the agenda which means making the use of Iran’s auto parts industry. Today, auto parts industry has created a significant turnover to produce more than 70% of domestic and foreign  auto parts. Under current economic conditions, manufacturing  40% of new cars and 100% of auto parts for domestic vehicles is possible.

Current situation of automotive – Parts in the year
ended March 2017

International spare parts manufacturers’ cooperation
with Iran

Export & Import

According to statistics of the last three years auto parts export has had a lot of ups and downs, as it was 180 mn USD, in the year ended March 2015, to 230 mn USD, in the year ended March 2016, while the value of export was 200 mn USD in the year ended March 2017. The vision of 2025 predicts the worsened status of auto parts industry. The domestic manufacturers relate the drop in export to intensified international sanctions which seems to
have kept them satisfied with the current situation and refuse to produce domestic vehicles. However, the entry of foreign investors in post-sanction era was a promising point for growth of the manufacturing sector which may not be possible due to retardation of technology and the lack of suitable context in the current situation.

Auto parts import & export (mn USD)

Rubber

The rubber dates back to more than half a century and is one of the most important industries in the value chain of the automotive. Since more than 60% of the raw materials used are oil derivatives, the availability of oil resources makes Iran one of the most susceptible countries for the tire industry. In the Middle East, there are about 25 rubber factories, of which there are 10 factories with a nominal capacity of 363,000 tons per year and with a capacity of more than 15,000 people. The industry has a good economic value added and given the
experienced specialists and engineers an economic value of about 995.7 mn USD, with a  total turnover of more than 2 bn USD a year.

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Production

Over 243,000 tons were produced with a growth of 15% in the year ended March 2017, compared to the previous year.

Rubber production

Roughly, 89% of the total volume and about 49% total number of rubber production belonged to auto tires, in the year ended March 2017

Combination of tire production in the year ended March 2017

Domestic Consumption

The annual rubber consumption was 350,000 tons in the year ended March 2017, of which 243,000 tons were supplied by domestic producers and the rest are provided through import.

The consumption of all types of rubber, auto tires and tubes was 303,475 tons, by 37,142,668 tires in the year ended March 2016.

Consumption of tube & rubber (000 tons)

Import & Export

Excessive tire import have created a lot of problems for tire manufacturers in recent years.

As many domestic manufacturers suffred hug loss, this led to tire production decrease in the year ended March 2016. Following and enforcing related laws on the import of non quality tires restrict, as a result, these decisions resulted in domestic manufacture growth by 15%, in the year ended March 2017, compared to the previous year. In the year ended March 2017, the total import of all types of tires, rubber and tubes amounted to 364.1 mn USD and weighed more than 106,400 tons, up from a year earlier and increased by 4 and 3.3% in terms of value and volume, respectively. Also, 24.4 mn USD various types of tires and rubber were exported in the year ended March 2017, which decreased by 24.8% compared to the previous year.

Rubber import & export

Rubber import & export (mn USD)

Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq and Nigeria are Iran’s main rubber export destinations.

China with 34.4%, South Korea with 19.8% and the UAE with 15.3% are the main import origins.

Rubber, tubes and tires export destination                                     Rubber import origins in the year ended 
          in the year ended March 2017                                                                      March 2017

New auto contracts

So far, with the public and private companies, 6 agreements have been fialized between Iran and the world’s leading automotive companies. Meanwhile, 5 European and Asian companies have signed contracts.

3 French, 2 German and a Korean companies have signed a contract with 5 Iranian car makers and an industrial organization.

Iran Khodro Contract with Peugeot

Peugeot, with more than two decades of partnership was one of the fist automakers to leave Iran with nuclear sanctions and after JCPOA immediately re-establish their position in the Iranian market. It is planned to manufacture 200,000 cars in four years and in order to internalize the quality and the original price reduction, the joint company of Peugeot and Iran Khodro with the name of IKAP has been invested by 50 -50. Also, 19 subcontracts were signed and in the new partnership, three models 2008, 301 and 208 will be manufactured.

IDRO contract with Renault

Renault, a global automaker, concluded a contract with IDRO as the fist contract and investment of more than 50% of foreign automakers. All management, engineering financial and export issues are implemented by Renault.

Renault is supervising on 60 Iranian parts manufacturers and link them to Renault–Nissan Alliance. According to the contract, the investment in the fist phase between IDRO and Renault is estimated at 660 mn EUR for 300,000 cars. Two Renault products – New Duster and New Symbol are considered to be manufactured. A car manufacturing Group in Saveh was purchased and will be available to Renault. Manufacturing will start domestically of 40%, after 18 months this figure will reach 60%. The trio contract was signed between the French automaker, IDRO and a private company, with Renault’s share of 60% with each Iranian party of 20% share. Renault is to make 30% of cars and parts. Considering the positive points of the contract, it can be viewed as the second output of JCPOA in the automotive industry. Without JCPOA, there was no success, neither Renault nor any other authoritative foreign car could engage in extensive operations.

Saipa and Citroen

Following negotiations between Saipa and Citroen, in was signed the contract for the production and sale of Citroen cars in Iran in September 2016.

Peugeot-Citroen and Saipa automotive group have been old partners since 1966 and the former Xantia and Dyane. A joint venture agreement to co-produce at Saipa factory in Kashan as Saipa’s contribution share was signed. Citroen will own 50% of this plant.

300 mn EUR is to by invested on research and production technology over the next 5 years in transfer and significant use of domestic capabilities to manufacture Elysee Sedan and Crossover XR C3. Both cars have a joint platform (PF1) with IKCO, Peugeot 301, Peugeot 208 and Peugeot 2008. Citroen production is expected to begin in Kashan province since 2018.

Kerman Motor Contract with Hyundai Motor of South Korea

The Hyundai Motors Corporation of South Korea signed a contract with Kerman Motors. According to the contract, while transferring technology to Iranian partner with a moderate price, Hyundai import its domestic and luxury products as CBU. This contract was idealized in the fall of 2016, starting with Hyundai i10 and i20 in the special economic zone of Arg. Apart from the Hyundai I-10, I-20 and Accent assembly; the models of Elentra, Tucson, Sonata and Santa Fe partly reflct the future conditions of Kerman Motor.

Mammuth contract with Volkswagen

After JCPOA, Volkswagen started negotiations with Mammuth auto company, both 50% to produce and deliver Volkswagen cars in Iran. The production of Polo and Golf seem to be the fist products of Mammuth auto Company.

Contract with Benz

Iran Khodro and Mercedes-Benz signed a contract for a joint venture in sales and after-sales service of commercial vehicles, on January 2016 and idealized in September 2018. The contract between Iran Khodro Diesel Co., on behalf of Iran Khodro and Benz Co., from the Mercedes-Benz headquarters of Wurst, was a joint venture in sales and after-sales service targeting Mercedes Benz commercial vehicles.

A second contract will be finalized for manufacturing A ct rose truck. According to the plan, the joint venture will be 20% in the fist year and can be increased by 30-50% if economically viable. Of course, the need for measuring and manufacturing new products and replacing with current products is expected to be met in the joint venture between Iran Khodro and Daimler. Due to the cooperation in the fild of commercial vehicles, the cooperation of the parties on the agreement and memorandum of the last year is followed as the same.

SWOT

Strengths

• Tendency to new technologies

• High experience

• Allocate existing production sites to partners alongside dedicated after-sales service network and the design and development of hybrid vehicles and joint research and development centers

• Economies of scale in a large part of the industry Dependent industries and respective activities in (rubber and petrochemical industries)

Weaknesses

• Low quality products in comparison with the global up to date technology and damaging to the domestic brand due to the production of poor quality products in recent years.

• A large number of domestic auto parts makers are mostly small and with limited technological capabilities.

• No competitive market, government intervention Changing the needs of customers and the need for appropriate products

• Lack of incentives to stimulate domestic demand High dependence on government resources and support Poor presence in regional treaties to expand export and partnership

• Exhaustion of production lines machinery The low productivity of the staf in the automotive industry; 3 vehicles are manufactured for every employee per year, while in France, Germany, Japan etc. this fiure is 12 to 15 vehicles a year.

• Lack of attention to R&D

Opportunities

• The high demand for investment in technology and equipment

• High need for innovation in products, services and operations

• Increased demand for vehicles due to low quality cars available

• Investing in green technology The feasibility of cooperation, alliances and supply chain development

• The feasibility of technology-based companies in post-sanction

• The possibility of exporting to Iraq and Syria ,given the stability of the two countries Government support because the need for employment

Threats

• Increasing the role of governments in the automotive industry

• Fluctuation of exchange rate

• The direct presence of foreign companies in the market for selling products due to consumer pressure

Advantages & Potentials

• Iranian potential market; the huge size of the Iranian car market made global automakers invest.

• The average salary of the workforce in the automotive sector is 8,100 USD annually, which is 20% lower than Turkey and 40% lower than Morocco and the Czech Republic.

• The large number of graduate engineers.

• Benefiting domestic supply chain such as steel.

• Low-cost energy and power as advantage for manufacturers.

• Vicinity geographic location to target markets such as the Iraq.

• Low consumption per capita.

• Worn out transportation fleet

Laws & Regulations

– Import of vehicles and road construction machinery (except those approved by the Ministries’ delegation) is due to establish “after sale service” official agencies.

– Import of trucks and buses’ (not used) are allowed, provided that from their manufacturing date has not been passed more than two years. Arrival (import) of passenger cars, which from their manufacturing date passed more than a year, is prohibited. Import of new cars (not used), which two years passed from their manufacturing date is permitted just for the public used taxis and vans.

– Pricing in the automotive industry; Given that the price of a car must be determined by supply and demand, National Competition Council and the authorities responsible for automobile will determine the prices and unfortunately, the consumer and the producer have no right to determine the prices.

– The most basic government support for this industry is imposing signifiant tarif and non-tarif barriers on car import.

Import tariff-2017

Investment priorities

• Injectors and injector needle

• Production of automotive CNG kits and other equipment and relevant accessories

• ABS braking system

• Car air bags

• Composite brake pad

• Types of car paulus

• Automatic gearbox

• Shock absorb er, springs with up to date technology Super- charged car

• A variety of ball and roller bearings (used in automotive and industrial applications)

• Fully synthetic gasoline and diesel engines according to advanced technology

• Auto production under the reputable companies brand with the highest share of domestic and export manufacturing commitment

• Electric car and motorcycles

• Van vehicles (petrol and diesel) with a maximum share of domestic production

• Jointly car platform

• Petrol combustion engine family (especially low- consumption engines)

• Diesel engine

• Gearbox family (manual – automatic) Hybrid and electric vehicles

• Projects of new technologies in lightweight design, using the turbocharge and the implementation of Europe standards in domestic vehicles.

Auto industry in Capital Market

The Automotive and Parts Group is one of the main groups in Iran’s stock market. The companies in the automotive and spare parts group, with a market value of 4,274 mn USD, accounted for 4.1% of Iranian capital market value. Currently, the average P / E ratio of this group is 13.04.